Testing the model behind a headline investment return.
An investor needed a reliable view of returns when the workbook, term sheet and investment memo did not agree.
Can the headline 10% IRR be reconciled to the underlying costs, cash-flow rights and exit assumptions?
- 01
Reviewed 70 variables and reconciled 25 inconsistencies across the source material.
- 02
Created a canonical data dictionary, consistent units and a single sources-and-uses and investor cash-flow engine.
- 03
Rebuilt seven-year and ten-year cases and regenerated an investment summary with controlled assumptions.
Reconciled economics did not meet the 10% headline target. The canonical case showed a 3.7% seven-year IRR and an 8.9% ten-year IRR, clarifying the importance of exit-value assumptions before investor communication.
Anonymised and analytically reconstructed case. Transaction and exit terms are indexed to protect confidentiality. These results are case-specific, not forecasts or a guarantee of investment performance.
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